The Effects of Irrigation and Climate on the High Plains Aquifer: A County‐Level Econometric Analysis

The High Plains Aquifer (HPA) underlies parts of eight states and 208 counties in the central area of the United States (U.S.). This region produces more than 9% of U.S. crops sales and relies on the aquifer for irrigation. However, these withdrawals have diminished the stock of water in the aquifer. In this paper, we investigate the aggregate county‐level effect on the HPA of groundwater withdrawal for irrigation, of climate variables, and of energy price changes. We merge economic theory and hydrological characteristics to jointly estimate equations describing irrigation behavior and a generalized water balance equation for the HPA. Our simple water balance model predicts, at average values for irrigation and precipitation, an HPA‐wide average decrease in the groundwater table of 0.47 feet per year, compared to 0.48 feet per year observed on average across the HPA during this 1985–2005 period. The observed distribution and predicted change across counties is in the (?3.22, 1.59) and (?2.24, 0.60) feet per year range, respectively. The estimated impact of irrigation is to decrease the water table by an average of 1.24 feet per year, whereas rainfall recharges the level by an average of 0.76 feet per year. Relative to the past several decades, if groundwater use is unconstrained, groundwater depletion would increase 50% in a scenario where precipitation falls by 25% and the number of degree days above 36°C doubles. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Changes in Hydrology of the Ganges Delta of Bangladesh and Corresponding Impacts on Water Resources

The Ganges Delta in Bangladesh is an example of water‐related catastrophes in a major rural river basin where limitations in quantity, quality, and timing of available water are producing disastrous conditions. Water availability limitations are modifying the hydrologic characteristics especially when water allocation is controlled from the upstream Farakka Barrage. This study presents the changes and consequences in the hydrologic regime due to climate‐ and human‐induced stresses. Flow duration curves (FDCs), rainfall elasticity, and temperature sensitivity were used to assess the pre‐ and post‐barrage water flow patterns. Hydrologic and climate indices were computed to provide insight on hydro‐climatic variability and trend. Significant increases in temperature, evapotranspiration, hot days, heating, and cooling degree days indicate the region is heading toward a warmer climate. Moreover, increase in high‐intensity rainfall of short duration is making the region prone to extreme floods. FDCs depict a large reduction in river flows between pre‐ and post‐barrage periods, resulting in lower water storage capacity. The reduction in freshwater flow increased the extent and intensity of salinity intrusion. This freshwater scarcity is reducing livelihood options considerably and indirectly forcing population migration from the delta region. Understanding the causes and directions of hydrologic changes is essential to formulate improve water resources management in the region.     

Climate and Land Use Effects on Hydrologic Processes in a Primarily Rain‐Fed,Agricultural Watershed

Anticipating changes in hydrologic variables is essential for making socioeconomic water resource decisions. This study aims to assess the potential impact of land use and climate change on the hydrologic processes of a primarily rain‐fed, agriculturally based watershed in Missouri. A detailed evaluation was performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for the near future (2020–2039) and mid‐century (2040–2059). Land use scenarios were mapped using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects model. Ensemble results, based on 19 climate models, indicated a temperature increase of about 1.0°C in near future and 2.0°C in mid‐century. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed distinct annual and seasonal hydrologic variations. Annual precipitation was projected to increase from 6% to 7%, which resulted in 14% more spring days with soil water content equal to or exceeding field capacity in mid‐century. However, summer precipitation was projected to decrease, a critical factor for crop growth. Higher temperatures led to increased potential evapotranspiration during the growing season. Combined with changes in precipitation patterns, this resulted in an increased need for irrigation by 38 mm representing a 10% increase in total irrigation water use. Analysis from multiple land use scenarios indicated converting agriculture to forest land can potentially mitigate the effects of climate change on streamflow, thus ensuring future water availability.     

Modeling Hydrological and Environmental Consequences of Climate Change and Urbanization in the Boise River Watershed,Idaho

The potential impacts driven by climate variability and urbanization in the Boise River Watershed (BRW), located in southwestern Idaho, are evaluated. The outcomes from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and land use and land cover (LULC) analysis have been incorporated into a hydrological and environmental modeling framework to characterize how climate variability and urbanization can affect the local hydrology and environment at the BRW. The combined impacts of future climate and LULC change are also evaluated relative to the historical baseline conditions. For modeling exercises, Hydrological Simulation Program‐Fortran (HSPF) is used in parallel computing and statistical techniques, including spatial downscaling and bias correlation, are employed to evaluate climate consequences derived from GCMs as well. The implications of climate variability and land use change driven by urbanization are then observed to evaluate how these overall global challenges can affect water quantity and quality conditions at the BRW. The results show the combined impacts of both climate change and urbanization can lead to more seasonal variability of streamflow (from ?27.5% to 12.5%) and water quality, including sediment (from ?36.5% to 49.3%), nitrogen (from ?24% to 124.2%), and phosphorus (from ?13.3% to 21.2%) during summer and early fall over the next several decades.     

基于观测数据空间化的北京市PM_(2.5)时空分异

PM2.5在地球表面上的变化是连续的,但由于地面海拔起伏和站点分布的相对稀疏,直接内插法很难顾及这种情况。文章运用反距离权重(IDW)、Kriging、经验贝叶斯克里金法(EBK)、多元回归+残差内插的综合空间化手段,对北京市2015年1月的PM2.5数据进行分析。结果表明:利用多元回归+残差内插方法空间化更优,且PM2.5存在显著的正局部空间自相关,中度以上污染主要分布在北京市东南部和房山区。时间上,PM2.5质量浓度逐时均值呈"W"型。3 h尺度上,PM2.5质量浓度与相对湿度和露点温度正相关,与能见度、大气压和风速负相关,与温度不相关。     

城市环境空间规划管控体系的构建——以广州市为例

通过叙述国内环境空间规划体系发展历程,总结国内在开展城市环境空间管控方面的主要做法和经验,以广州市为研究案例提出在城市尺度建立环境空间规划管控体系的总体架构和技术思路,为城市环境规划和空间规划管理提供参考。     

变温过程试验箱温度特性分析

目的研究环境试验箱变温过程中的温度分布特性。方法对具有代表特性的温度试验箱进行温场特性测定及分析,深入了解变温过程中试验箱的温场分布和影响温度特性的各个因素。结果变温过程中不同位置的温度重合性差,温变率越高,变温过程的非线性越明显。结论在变温过程中,试验箱内部测点和控制温度相比有一定的差异性,使得处于试验箱中的受试产品的不同部位,承受温度梯度应力。对于产品外表面、安装在外表面的零部件或靠近外表面的内部零部件,可能产生物理损坏或性能下降。故在使用中应充分注意这种温场特性对受试产品的影响。     

祁连山区亚高山灌丛土壤含水量的空间分布与月份变化规律

为了探究祁连山区不同灌丛类型的土壤水分时空变异规律,论文以祁连山排露沟小流域的箭叶锦鸡儿（Caragana jubata）、吉拉柳（Salix gilashanica）、金露梅（Potentilla fruticosa）、鲜黄小檗（Berberis diaphana）、甘青锦鸡儿（Caragana tangutica）5种灌丛为对象,建立固定样地,进行了一个生长季的分层（0~10、10~20、20~30、30~40、40~60 cm）土壤含水量监测。结果表明：1）在各灌丛类型样地之间,土壤含水量差异很大,由大到小依次为：箭叶锦鸡儿>吉拉柳>金露梅>鲜黄小檗>甘青锦鸡儿。2）在小流域内空间尺度上,地形（海拔、坡向）、气象（降水、温度）、植被、土壤等作为主要因素共同影响着土壤含水量的差异,导致土壤含水量的空间分布具有随海拔（降水）升高而增大、随地形遮荫作用增强而增大（阴坡高于阳坡）的变化规律。3）不同灌丛类型样地土壤含水量在生长季内各月的变异程度均为弱变异或中等变异,相同土层含水量变异系数大小顺序基本为：鲜黄小檗>箭叶锦鸡儿>吉拉柳>金露梅>甘青锦鸡儿。     

Treatment,residual chlorine and season as factors affecting variability of trihalomethanes in small drinking water systems

Seasonal variability in source water can lead to challenges for drinking water providers related to operational optimization and process control in treatment facilities. The objective of this study is to investigate seasonal variability of water quality in municipal small water systems (<3000 residents) supplied by surface waters. Residual chlorine and trihalomethanes (THM) were measured over seven years (2003–2009). Comparisons are made within each system over time, as well as between systems according to the type of their treatment technologies. THM concentrations are generally higher in the summer and autumn. The seasonal variability was generally more pronounced in systems using chlorination plus additional treatment. Chloroform, total THM (TTHM) and residual chlorine concentrations were generally lower in systems using chlorination plus additional treatment. Conversely, brominated THM concentrations were higher in systems using additional treatment. Residual chlorine was highest in the winter and lowest in the spring and summer. Seasonal variations were most pronounced for residual chlorine in systems with additional treatment. There was generally poor correlation between THM concentrations and concentrations of residual chlorine. Further study with these data will be beneficial in finding determinants and indicators for both quantity and variability of disinfection byproducts and other water quality parameters.     

天津市PM2.5碳组分空间差异性及来源解析

2021年在天津市不同功能区共设置4个点位同步采集细颗粒物（PM_2.5）样品,测定了其中8种碳质亚组分的含量.结果表明,采样期间各点位ρ[有机碳（OC）]为3.7~4.4 μg·m^-3,ρ[元素碳（EC）]为1.6~1.7 μg·m^-3,OC浓度在中心城区最高,EC浓度差别较小.采用最小比值法对二次有机碳（SOC）进行估算,结果表明环城区二次污染较为突出,SOC占OC的比例达48.8%.各功能区碳质亚组分间的相关性强弱呈现出外围区>中心城区>环城区的特征,均表现出EC₁与OC₂和EC₁与OC₄相关性最强.正定矩阵因子（PMF）来源解析结果显示,道路扬尘源（9.7%~23.5%）、燃煤源（10.2%~13.3%）、柴油车尾气（12.6%~20.2%）和汽油车尾气（18.9%~38.8%）是天津市PM_2.5中碳组分的主要来源.不同功能区碳组分污染源存在差异,中心城区和外围区主要受汽油车尾气影响;环城区受二次污染和柴油车尾气的影响更为突出.